Crowds of cheering Liberians lined the roadside in pouring rain on Monday to welcome a convoy of military trucks ferrying 150 Gambian peacekeeping troops from Roberts international airport into the capital Monrovia. The Gambians were the latest West African soldiers to arrive to reinforce 1,550 Nigerian troops who have been trying to enforce a ceasefire between the government and two rebel movements since August 4.

The number of new cholera cases reported in the Liberian capital Monrovia peaked at more than 1,200 a week in mid-August, but has since started to decline, Omar Khatib, the World Health Organisation (WHO) representative in the country said on Monday. "Between 11-17 August, 1,203 new cholera cases were reported. Since then, the situation has stabilized. But there is still an epidemic," he told IRIN.

Women of Liberia want to see more humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping forces in the country to stop looting and killings. Women should also be involved in more concrete actions such as the disarmament process, according to a press release from the Mano River Women's Peace Network (MARWOPNET). A delegation of eight women from the Liberia Chapter of MARWOPNET participated for the last two months in the Liberia peace talks held in Akosombo, Ghana.

Peace is crucial to sustainable societal development. Although some cynical students of history may sneer at this generalisation its veracity in the context of Liberia is unchallengeable.

Unfortunately, peace in Liberia is being built on the faulty premise that the physical extraction of one man (i.e. Charles Taylor) from the stage of conflict, a ceasefire, peacekeeping and a power sharing formula ‘acceptable’ (for the time being) to various factions and warlords will lead to a permanent and sustainable peace.

Some actors and observers will argue, that it was vital to first secure the peace and end the suffering and loss of life first at any cost, and then plan further later. No reasonable person will argue with this. But any reasonable person that has followed not just the history of conflict in Liberia, but the trajectory of many failed states will also know, that this formula has been applied to Liberia in the past and has failed tragically.

To recap summarily, the conflict in Liberia is 14 years old. (Thousands of combatant child soldiers have with the exception of brief intervals known no other life). ECOWAS has intervened in the past. Again Nigeria played a leading role. ECOWAS troops were sucked into the conflict. Eventually the country was stabilised – or so they thought. The financial cost of the last intervention to the Nigerian economy is estimated at roughly 12 billion US dollars (some of it ending up in the pockets of corrupt army generals). Other ECOWAS countries spent unknown sums estimated to be not less than several millions of dollars. Again leaders of key factions (Yormie Johnson and Roosevelt Johnson) were extracted from the stage of conflict, again to Nigeria. The part of the old script we have not yet reached is the planned elections, but this is currently being redrafted with new actors in mind. The new ‘agreements’ from the ‘peace talks’ suggest that elections will be held in 2004/2005. Once this happens, the old formula would have gone full circle. Elections will follow, a victory will be declared, at least one faction is virtually guaranteed to disagree with the election results. If the faction appears insignificant, the results will initially stand, but soon become wobbly as soon as the peacekeepers pull out. The faction may then begin to grow again, drawing on large pools of resentment from amongst those whose hopes of economic, political and social and human rights have been dashed.

No one pays twice to see a bad movie. No one would definitely pay to experience a nightmare let alone twice. But why is a failed formula being applied to the same problem? To answer this question, we need to look at what should have been done previously and in so doing answer some key questions.

Firstly, did the past military and electoral ‘victory’ of Charles Taylor and his forces resolve the social, economic and political inequalities and conflicts that triggered the first Liberian war? The answer is a no so resounding that it has swept him from the presidential villa.

Secondly, did the agreement that led to the withdrawal of ECOWAS forces from Liberia after the previous intervention include and ensure the implementation of provisions that would guarantee genuine rehabilitation and reconstruction, respect for fundamental rights and in particular freedom of expression, press freedom, and the rights to association, assembly and political participation. The answer again is a no so resounding that a continuous hail of gunfire, wailing and sorrow has followed it. Despite the reluctance of Nigeria and other ECOWAS countries the calls from the Liberian people (a captive audience caught in the crossfire on the stage of conflict) have dragged ECOWAS forces back to the stage for a repeat intervention.

THE CASE FOR A ‘MARSHALL PLAN’

The approach of the governments of the West African Sub-region and the African Union leadership displays a lack of holistic understanding of the dynamics of resolving war and conflict through development. All armed conflicts or wars, especially those that last for several years and spread in concentric circles, usually leave behind seriously, if not completely devastated societies especially at the epicentre of the conflict. (Although most wars differ in their scale, intensity and nature of prosecution.) This was largely the case in Japan and Germany following the Second World War (and to a lesser degree other European countries and the Soviet Union), South East Asia (Vietnam, Cambodia), Afghanistan (USSR invasion of 79-89), The Balkans, Iraq from the first gulf war to the second, and is certainly the case in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Liberia/Sierra Leone etc.

War is a massive destroyer of society and its productive forces. The specific consequences and aftermath of war or conflict in a country or region depends on: the causes and roots of a conflict (economic, political, religious, ethnic etc); the size and population of a country/region; its homogeneity or diversity; contending parties and the size of their social base; their fire power; the nature of victory or stalemate; the forces waiting in the wings to capitalise; available natural resources; previous levels of industrialisation; the extent of the destruction of human and other resources; and very importantly, the amount of planning and resources put into reconstructing the society, rehabilitation of combatants and victims etc. Where the conflict or war has been caused or exacerbated by inequalities and exclusion, repression or mass murder of significant social formations, issues of rights and political participation become even more crucial to rebuilding those societies.

In the case of Liberia, the attitude of the regional governments, at least those not involved in the conflict, has merely been to ensure some sort of peace which amounts to scarcely more than a continuation of the conflict by less violent means, and then hope that the problem goes away. ‘It’ did not go away in Cambodia, Afghanistan, The Balkans or Sierra Leone where conflicts were left half resolved and simmering. Instead ‘it’ paved the way in those theatres of conflict, for more extreme forces waiting in the wings to inflict even more pain on already mortally wounded societies. If the problems caused by the consequences of the devastation of war were resolved in Japan, Germany and much of Europe (to the extent that large scale armed conflict has been so far neutralised), it is because there was a Marshall Plan that absorbed the forces of conflict, paved the way for their rehabilitation and funded the reconstruction of society. This is what not just Liberia, but all the conflict zones of Africa need. The billion-dollar question, literally speaking, is who will pay for this? Following World War Two, morbid fear of the potential spread of communism propelled America to underwrite the reconstruction of Europe and Japan.

In the case of Africa, this writer argues that morbid fear of a steady concentric spread of conflict should act as the propellant for the African countries, especially the bigger and richer ones, to act. The funds spent on potentially endless cycles of peacekeeping are better spent on peace building. African countries are not very rich - but they are rich enough for Nigeria to have spent 12 billion US dollars in its first peace keeping intervention in Liberia. How much will a Marshall Plan cost? No one knows unless it is actually costed. Prioritisation can then be effected.

What will the Marshall Plan do? For one, the physical reconstruction of schools, hospitals, homes, roads and vital infrastructure such as water, electricity and communications. It will facilitate: the re-emergence of the educational system; the healthcare system; a financial system; rehabilitation and skills training centres for soldiers and militia especially child combatants; rehabilitation of internally displaced persons and refugees; reconstitution of the judicial and justice system, institutionalisation of rights and an end to impunity. These will constitute a start.

THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY

But who will preside over planning and the allocation of resources. Should this once again be the exclusive preserve of warlords and factions whose hunger for power is driven by the desire for control of the state apparatus and the countries resources? Certainly not. While political realities cannot be ignored, the reconstitution of civil society, the professional associations and trade unions for medical personnel, teachers and other key sections of society and economy must be a priority. Will it really be possible to successfully rebuild Liberia’s healthcare system for example without the organised and democratic participation of its health workers in the process? Will it be possible to rebuild the justice and judicial system without the democratic participation of what is left of Liberia’s Bar Association? What of the role of journalists in rebuilding the media which was at once marginalised and appropriated by the Taylor regime? Only by involving civil society in the policy shaping and decision making process can democracy be institutionalised. The warlords and factions will not like this. But either ECOWAS ensures this, or more armed conflict and regional instability is only round the corner. More importantly, the myth that armed conflicts in neighbouring countries are of no concern to other governments has been punctured. At the last count, the major regional conflicts in Africa have each spread to or drawn in at least three or four other countries.

And to ask the cynical question. What is in it for the more industrially advanced nations? The events of the past few years provide a self-evident answer. Failed states are a threat, and not just to their immediate neighbours. The capture of failed states by extremist forces as in Cambodia, Afghanistan, and as almost happened in Sierra Leone also lead to massive refugee issues and potential destabilisation of regions.

To be sure, many governments both non-African and African may not be enthusiastic to support the emergence of a society which may question the nature of their own rule. Massive public spending and entrenchment of democratic values to end marginalisation, lift the standard of housing, healthcare, education, ensure political participation, access to justice and defence of rights have been caught up in the quagmire of politics. This is the case even in more advanced countries. But there is no other choice in the long run. Failure to implement these will in the long run, create again and again the social, political and economic conditions that have led to continuous cycles of conflict. To put it crudely, bands of armed and jobless, uneducated, unskilled, homeless, hungry and angry young men will at the very least be drawn into crime sooner or later. At worst they are ready armies for potential warlords prepared to subvert peace and stability in a bid to control states and resources.

It is also not politically or economically viable to plan for peacekeeping without planning for peace- building. The lack of a clear development based exit plan will either lead to indefinite peacekeeping with the peacekeepers being seen sooner or later as an occupying force, or the establishment of a ‘peace’ similar to a fragile sheet of glass soon shattered into pieces by the slightest pressure. DRC, Somalia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, almost Cote D’Ivoire and many more. How many years, how many countries and how many lives will it take for African governments to realise that ceasefires, peacekeeping and power sharing will never be enough.

* Rotimi Sankore is Coordinator of CREDO for Freedom of Expression and Associated Rights an international NGO focussing on rights issues in Africa. CREDO can be reached at [email][email protected]

* Please send comments on this editorial to [email protected]

Washington's removal of U.S. marines from Monrovia to ships offshore will hurt the recovery of war-weary Liberia in both real and symbolic ways, say humanitarian and political experts. Earlier this week, 150 soldiers in a rapid reaction force that had been patrolling Monrovia since Aug. 14 climbed into their helicopters and flew to three ships stationed nearby, leaving about 100 troops behind to guard the U.S. embassy and work with West African peacekeepers. Since the marines' departure, reports have emerged of battles between government and rebel forces.

“The departure of Charles Taylor from power and from Liberia constitutes a significant but incomplete step forward for West Africa in establishing a just and stable peace. We call on the international community to ensure that Taylor stands before the Special Court for Sierra Leone to face the serious charges against him. There can be no true peace while he remains at large.”

A new survey of young children living in camps for displaced people in the Liberian capital Monrovia indicates that nearly 40 percent of them suffer from malnutrition. World Vision said on Monday it had conducted a nutritional survey of 2,112 children under the age of five in 11 camps for displaced people from late June to the end of July. This found that 39.8 percent of them suffered from acute malnutrition.

An internationally brokered plan that carves up control of big revenue-earning sectors of the Liberian economy among the government and two rebel groups could perpetuate corruption and endanger redevelopment, a prominent opposition leader has warned. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the leading opposition candidate in the country's last presidential election, said proposals for international oversight of Liberian ministries and agencies could be frustrated by vested interests that became entrenched under ousted president Charles Taylor.

Thousands of civilians were displaced by renewed clashes between Liberian government troops and rebel fighters at the weekend. The fighting took place less than a week after the signing of a peace agreement that was supposed to end 14 years of civil war.

Food shortages grew more accute in the Liberian capital Monrovia on Wednesday as rebel forces continued pounding the city centre with mortar fire and the United Nations warned that its one million population faced a humanitarian tragedy.

Acting on a United Nation's (UN) request, Switzerland has frozen two million Swiss francs (?1,3 million, $1,5-million) in the bank accounts of two associates of Liberian President Charles Taylor, the Swiss justice ministry said on Wednesday. The move followed a request by the UN-backed court investigating war crimes in Sierra Leone last month, which triggered a search of Swiss banks for any assets linked to the Liberian leader.

Reporters sans frontières (RSF) has appealed to all sides in the fighting in Liberia to avoid harming journalists after a French photographer, Patrick Robert, was seriously wounded in the chest and arm during clashes on 19 July 2003 between government and rebel forces on the outskirts of Monrovia.

Increasingly desperate for food and pleading for evacuation, hundreds of Sierra Leonean refugees jammed the UNHCR compound in war-ravaged Monrovia on Wednesday amid continued fighting between government troops and rebels.

A halt to extraction and trade of Liberian gold, diamonds and timber would help stop the fighting that has killed at least 600 civilians in the capital in the past five days, according to the Environmental Lawyers Association of Liberia and two other nongovernmental organisations.

The Liberian capital of Monrovia is experiencing some of its worst fighting in seven years, following a weekend of heavy bombardment as rebel forces advanced into the city centre and government troops loyal to embattled President Charles Taylor fought to hold their positions. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), which had hoped to get a thousand or more troops on the ground this week, is still discussing how to get the force into place.
Related Links:
* REBELS REFUSE TO SIGN LIBERIA PEACE AGREEMENT
http://irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=35552
* BRUTAL FIGHTING IN MONROVIA: AT LEAST 100 DEAD
http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?a=37&o=25077

Human Rights Watch has written to the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), John Kufuor, urging him to ensure that ECOWAS troops sent to Liberia act in full accordance with international human rights and humanitarian law, and with a clear mandate to protect civilians and to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid.

The more involved the U.S. becomes in the crisis-wracked continent of Africa, the clearer it is that Washington isn't the solution - but instead bears responsibility for the civil wars and social catastrophes across Africa. Exhibit A is Liberia.
Related Link:
* Liberia: Ending the Horror
http://www.fpif.org/outside/commentary/2003/0307liberia.html

The main Liberian rebel group, Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), has warned against the planned deployment of 1,500 ECOWAS peacekeepers in the war-torn country prior to the departure of President Charles Taylor into exile.

The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) in Liberia has ended a campaign to vaccinate 128,000 children under five years old and 230,000 women of child-bearing age around the capital, Monrovia, despite the recent escalation in fighting between government troops and rebels.

Both the government of Liberia and Liberian rebel forces are responsible for violations of international humanitarian law amounting to war crimes and other serious human rights abuses, according to a briefing before the U.S. Congressional Human Rights Caucus. "Tens of thousands of Liberians have been forcibly displaced and hundreds if not thousands of civilians have been killed, either deliberately or in crossfire. Recent human rights abuses committed by both sides include the forced recruitment of children in displaced and refugee camps, forced labour, assault, and sexual violence against civilians, as well as attacks on humanitarian workers," said Washington Director for Africa of Human Rights Watch Janet Fleischman.