Kenyans are preparing to go to the polls at the end of the year and, as in past years, there is much horse-trading and jockeying among the key players. President Kibaki came to power on a massive wave of change that swept aside the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and former president Moi's strangle-hold on power. The National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) that brought Kibaki to power was a tenuous but resolute grouping of seasoned political players who had fallen out of favor and been sidelined by the former regime.

It was not long before the inevitable cracks began to show in the coalition, and in the space of one year, the alliance had fallen apart. Key players in the ruling coalition like political stalwart Raila Odinga, (of the newly –formed Orange Democratic Movement) felt that the president had reneged on pre-election promises in terms of allocation of key posts. Furthermore, Kibaki pledged to serve only one term in office, but it became evident very early on that this was not to be the case. Subsequently, further divisions have occurred to the point where the current field of political parties bears little resemblance to those that went by the same name four years ago.

What remains the same are the names and faces. The hallmark of Kenyan politics is the ubiquity of the same handful of individuals who have been in the limelight for the last two decades. In the running for the top seat are scions of prominent political dynasties like Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi, as well as others who have served in previous regimes such as former Moi-era vice-president George Saitoti and Kalonzo Musyoka. Others like Musikari Kombo, Mukhisa Kituyi and William Ruto are rising contenders.

Kenyan politics remains largely ethnicity-based and politicians have always relied on voting blocks from their own and allied ethnic groups. This has largely obscured developmental issues that should take center-stage. Growth of the economy has remained modest at around 5% as has been development in major sectors of the economy such as agriculture and tourism. Corruption and crime continue to have a major impact on investment and national well-being.

It is likely that poverty will continue to have a major influence on the outcome of the elections. In the past, elections were decided based on who was able to buy the electorate with food hand-outs and promises of service delivery that are in reality the right of every citizen. With a little over nine months to go, the only thing that remains certain is that there will be more shape-shifting among the parties and players, empty promises to the electorate, and excitement in a population that is nevertheless proud to exercise their democratic right.

Further Reading:

http://www.eastandard.net
http://www.nationmedia.com
http://www.kenyanewsnetwork.com/

Carbon offsetting refers to the process reducing the net greenhouse gas ("carbon") emissions of a party, by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions—or increasing the carbon dioxide absorption—of another party. The intended goal of carbon offsets is to combat global warming. Increasing concern about global warming and the inability of certain countries to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions has made the option of offsetting very attractive. As a result there is a burgeoning market in carbon offsets. Africa is particularly attractive for carbon offsets. Not only are the levels of greenhouse gas emissions relatively low, ecological and economic factors also favor the establishment of offset projects.

Planting of trees to absorb carbon has been the most common form of carbon offsetting, but by no means the only one. There are already several such projects funded either by countries or corporations to offset emissions.

Carbon offsetting has rapidly become the means by which a polluting world assuages its guilt and attempts to solve the problem of global warming. Proponents of carbon offsetting advance the argument that in a modern world where pollution is a given, it is easier to find ways to mitigate the damage than it is to reduce it. In other words, it is easier to do something to pay for the damage, rather than not to damage. Hence the proliferation of "carbon-neutral" products and companies that give consumers of their products a guilt-free buy, by promising, for example, to fund a stove-making project in Eritrea or the reforestation of the slopes of Uganda's Mount Elgon.

The question that begs is whether these projects promote sustainable development. In Africa, for instance, how does monoculture of trees funded through offsetting projects need balancing against the dire need for arable land for food production? It may be argued that with advancing desertification, any such initiative should be welcomed. Harsher critics of offsetting like Austin Williams, director of the Future Cities Project, have referred to the practice as 'Carbon colonialism', whereby wealthy nations continue to rapidly develop using technology and industry that pollutes while they consign the poorer ones to the position of mopping up the world's pollution through eco-friendly projects that hamper their ability to develop and the same rate.

Williams takes a dim view of carbon offsets, arguing that agencies involved in carbon offset schemes engage in low- or alternative-technology projects in the developing world, hence slowing the pace of development to benefit the same environment that the developed world is destroying. He states that the current system sanctifies the environment and 'keeps half the world in penury while the other half ponders their next purchasing decisions'. In his view, 'consumer choices and carbon offsets are designed to maintain the iniquitous status quo, and make you feel good about it'. (Read Austin Williams' article on 'Spike Online' – link below)

Carbon offsetting is being touted as an opportunity to generate much-needed revenue for poor countries. But is it a good thing? Aid to poor countries was touted as a good thing, and it probably saved millions of lives. However, today, it is debatable whether the people of Africa are better of for having received it, and if it did not in fact hamstring efforts at autonomous development.

Further Reading:
The New Internationalist

http://www.newint.org/features/2006/07/01/carbon-offsets-facts/
David Suzuki Foundation http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16908275/
Climate Change Action
http://climatechangeaction.blogspot.com/2007/01/carbon-offsets-development.html
Spiked Online
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/1724/
IndyMedia Climate
http://www.dhf.uu.se/

President Hu Jintao has embarked on his second trip to the continent in less than a year and on his itinerary are seven countries earmarked as strategic trade and investment allies. Jintao will be visiting Cameroon, Liberia, Mozambique, South Africa, Sudan, the Seychelles and Zambia. What these countries have in common is their ability to provide China with vital resources, strategic positioning and trade opportunities for its ever-expanding economy.

China’s engagement with Africa is increasingly becoming the biggest topic of debate in as far as global economics is concerned. Accelerated growth in the Asian nation’s economy has increased pressure to obtain resources. Africa is turning out to be the perfect partner for China in a relationship that is viewed by some as mutually beneficial while others see it as another opportunity for massive exploitation, with few long-term benefits accruing to the vast majority of the continent’s population.

The arguments for the Sino-African rapprochement are from the perspective of South-South cooperation and a welcome change from the kind of relationship with the west (read Europe and the US). Most of Africa continues to reel under the burden of debt, further exacerbated by the inability to find equal footing on the global economic platform.

There has however, been a growing sense of suspicion about just how much the continent will benefit from unfolding events. China’s record on issues of social justice, political freedom, human rights, environment does not pass muster. Africa’s bilateral relations with the EU, the US and the International funding agencies over the last two decades have focused on broad political and economic reforms. China seeks to access the continent’s resources, mainly oil and minerals in exchange for infrastructural development and monetary aid, both of which its new partners desperately need.

The key question is whether this new relationship will derail efforts towards political change. China is also seeking new markets for its huge cheap goods manufacturing sector. Chinese imports have had a detrimental effect on the local manufacturing sectors in Africa, and this continues to be a sore point, as evidenced by the huge trade imbalances that China enjoys with most countries on the continent.

At a global level, the West has always enjoyed a dominant position vis-à-vis Africa, dating back from colonial times. The rise of the East, namely China and to a slightly lesser degree, India, as investment and trade partners threatens their position of influence on many fronts. The finite nature of Africa’s resources means there is a likelihood of a zero-sum game where China’s gain is the West’s loss. Needless to say, the effects of China’s new move into global geo-politics will be felt for a long time to come, both on the continent and elsewhere.

Further reading:
New Yorker in DC
Beijing Action Plan http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zflt/eng/zyzl/hywj/t280369.htm
International Herald Tribune http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/01/opinion/edecon.php
ISN Security Watch

As Nigeria prepares to go the polls in April of 2007, the continent and the world will be closely watching developments in the continent’s most populous nation. This will be the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in the country’s history. In the run-up to the elections, focus has been on the recently-released population census figures, the perceived incompetence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as well as the sheer number of candidates and parties competing.

The 2006 census puts the population at around 140 million. Although most analysts consider this a conservative, if not inaccurate figure, the main area of contention is the breakdown by region. According to the census, the North is more populous than the South. Southerners dispute this finding based on population densities and geographical realities. Rather, they perceive these findings as a means to bolster resource allocation disparities, gerrymandering, and even a precursor to vote-rigging in favour of the North.

The INEC recently extended the voter registration deadline by 14 days to allow for more Nigerians to register for the polls. The electoral body has come in for heavy criticism over its incompetence. There is concern about potential vote rigging, so the manner in which the INEC discharges its duties will determine how well the election results are received by the country and the world at large.

In such a populous and political volatile country, the sheer number of parties and candidates vying for election is by no means surprising. Of the thirteen-odd main parties vying for elections, four are fielding candidates in real contention for the presidency.

People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is the ruling party. Its candidate is the present governor of Katsina state, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who is Obasanjo’s anointed successor. He has leftist leanings and is the only state governor untainted by corruption allegations.

The All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) is the main opposition party. Its candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari is contesting elections again, having lost to Obasanjo in 2003.

The Action Congress (AC) candidate is Vice-president Atiku Abubakar. He was a founding member of the PDP but was suspended in allegations of corruption. He switched parties while in office, which has raised a potential constitutional crisis. Because the AC and the ANPP have an election pact, he will have to challenge Buhari to be able to vie for the presidency. His campaign is based on his call for a ‘power shift’ from the South to the North, whence he hails.

Former military ruler and power-broker Ibrahim Babangida has yet to find a political party to support his bid. He left the PDP after Obasanjo allegedly refused to back his bid for nomination in favor of Yar’Adua. He also enjoys wide public support in the North.

The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate is Chukwuemeka Ojukwu. He is the former leader of the Biafra secession uprising and a cult-figure of his Igbo people. His influence is more or less confined to South-Eastern Nigeria.

The spectre of violence and upheaval still hangs heavily over the country. There has been some unrest following the removal of high ranking officials and state governors by legislative process. The prominence of former generals in politics and in the elections is also a cause for concern given the country’s past experience of military rule.

Further reading and discussions:

INEC
The Vanguard http://www.vanguardngr.com
Nigerian Village Square http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/