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Hotter than normal temperatures raise the risk of violent conflict in East Africa, while increased rainfall makes such disturbances less likely, according to a new study conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences. For both climate variables, there is about a 30 per cent change in the likelihood of violence occurring in an affected area, the study finds. The results appear to reinforce warnings of climate change leading to more conflict in Africa, which is regarded as particularly vulnerable to the effects of sharp shifts in temperature and precipitation.